Mönster, inställningar, analys Vad är Short Skirt Trade En SHORT SKIRT är en snabb hårbottenhandel i riktning mot den kortsiktiga trenden. Inställningen sker efter att SampP har gjort ett skarp impulsflytt. Mönstret tenderar att se ut som en fortsättningsflagg på ett 1-minuters diagram. Vi kallar det en kort kjol eftersom handeln vanligtvis varar mellan 2 - 10 minuter. Konceptet är - snabbt in och snabbt ut utan att få fånga. Vi försöker leta efter korta kjoluppsättningar som har potential för minst tre punkter i handeln. En initial 3-punkts STOP är placerad från handelsinträdespriset. Målsättningen för handeln är en retest av den tidigare svängen hög eller låg, även om marknaden ofta gör ett nytt ben upp eller ner. Hur går du in i korta kjolhandlar Vi letar efter en pris retracement med 2 till 4 poäng från den senast bildade swingen hög eller låg. För ett otränat öga kan det vara bra att titta på 20-årigt exponentiellt glidande medelvärde på ett 1-minuters diagram, men priset återspeglar inte alltid så långt. Ibland kan de reaktioner som går i sidled istället för tillbaka till EMA vara de bästa affärer. Den ursprungliga prisuppgiften varar ca 5 minuter. När reaktionsbaksidan börjar stanna, går vi vanligtvis in i en marknadsordnad. Det är idealiskt att gå in i handeln innan priset börjar gå tillbaka i riktning mot den ursprungliga trenden. Det är också mest effektivt att arbeta ett bud eller ett erbjudande eftersom priset korrigerar ner, men ibland är den typ av order som används en fråga om personlig stil. Eftersom priset redan har korrigerat tillbaka 2-3 poäng när en handel är inmatad, är det sällsynt att det ursprungliga 3-punktsstoppet slås. Vi stramar stoppet efter att handeln flyttas i vår tjänst. När handeln börjar fungera, dra omedelbart din stopp till sista svängen högt eller lågt om marknaden inte gör en full retest tillbaka ner. Vad är en BullBear-flagga Dessa mönster tas direkt från klassisk kartläggning (Schabacker, Edwards Amp Magee, etc.) och har stått emot tidstestet. Flaggor är ett fortsättningsmönster på en trendmarknad. De finns på alla tidsramar, alla marknader, och erbjuder en av de bättre riskbelöningsförhållandena för handelstillfällen. En flaggbildning bör föregås av en pol eller initial momentumrörelse i riktning mot trenden. Den efterföljande konsolideringen tenderar att vara relativt ytlig. Fortsättningsmönster är mycket kortare än omkastningsmönster. Ju längre en flagga går i sidled, desto större är oddsen att den kommer att bli ett vändmönster i motsats till att det leder till ett nytt ben i riktning mot trenden. Vad är en Grail Trade Heliga Grail handeln var ursprungligen beskrivet i min Street Smarts bok. Inställningen sker när marknadstendensen har varit tillräckligt stark för att få en 14-årig ADX att stiga över 30. När priset sedan återvänder tillbaka till 20-års-EMA, gynnar odds en retest av den nyligen bildade höga eller låga. Vad är en Anti-inställning Anti ser ut som ett litet tjur - eller björnflaggmönster som uppträder antingen mitt i ett handelsområde eller strax efter att en marknad har vänt sig om från en fortsatt trendrörelse. Klassiska tjur - eller björnflaggor är fortsatta mönster som bara kan förekomma på en marknad som har en väldefinierad trend. Ibland ser en Anti ut som mitten retracement av ett A-B-C-mönster. Således kan vi få ett måttligt rörelseobjekt som är baserat på den tidigare svängningen. Anti måste föregås av ett kortfristigt IMPULSE-drag. Köp Antis är oftare än Sälj Anti-inställningar. De långa traderna kommer att ha de bästa oddsen för framgång om det föregående uppbenet är större än det föregående nedbenet. Oscillatormönsterigenkänning baserad på antingen 310-oscillatorn eller en 7-period K, 16-D-kombination av stokastik kan också användas för att identifiera denna inställning. Vad är Momentum Pinball Momentum Pinball introducerades ursprungligen i Street Smarts boken som inställning för att ange en Köp dag eller en Sälj Kort dag med George Douglas Taylor. Taylor såg att gå kort efter 1-2 dagars rally och täcka och gå långt efter 1-2 dagar av nedgång. Pinballindikatorn beräknas med hjälp av en 3-årig RSI av den dagliga nettoförändringen. Street Smarts-boken innehåller en komplett och detaljerad beskrivning av denna handel. (Momentum Pinball, Anti, Holy Grail, 8020 och 9010 barer och 2-åriga ROC-signaler är några av mina ORIGINAL-begrepp. Det upprepas gånger uppmärksammas att det finns individer på internet som erbjuder nyhetsbrev och kurser baserat på min ursprungliga kopia skrivskyddade material. Observera att jag inte har någon anknytning eller association med dessa enheter.) Vad är en Oops Trade Oops är ett uttryck som initierades av Larry Williams. Inställningen sker när öppningspriset går utanför det föregående dagintervallet. Ett köp (eller sälja) stopp placeras precis inom det föregående dagintervallet om marknaden stänger luckan, vilket indikerar en omkastning. Handeln behandlas bäst som en hårbottenhandel och avslutas före slutet. Detta mönster har inget långsiktig prognosvärde. Vilka är de viktigaste indikatorerna du använder på diagrammen Vi använder samma indikatorer på alla marknader, alla tidsramar. Vi använder en 20-årig EMA (exponentiell glidande medelvärde), en prisoscillator och en 14-årig ADX. Oscillatorn som vi använder är skillnaden mellan ett 3 och 10-årigt enkelt glidande medelvärde, med ett 16-årigt enkelt glidande medelvärde av 310. Vi använder även Keltner Channels baserat på en 2,5 ATR centrerad runt 20-års EMA. Tänk på att indikatorer bara är en krycka för att berätta vad som redan finns på stapeldiagram. Många handlare gör bäst när de lär sig att läsa stapeldiagram utan att använda indikatorer, oscillatorer etc. Vad är Breakout Mode Vi använder en breakout-modestrategi när marknaden har haft någon form av intervallintervall. En trenddag eller en stor expansionsdag följer ofta periodintervallet, eller små genomsnittliga dagintervaller. När vi är i breakout-läge använder vi strategier för att komma in i den riktning marknaden rör sig i stället för att vänta på en reaktion i priset. Hur mäter du marknadsbredd, sätter samtalskvoten och volymen Marknadsbredd övervakas genom att titta på antalet framåtriktade problem minus antalet minskande problem på NYSE. PutCall-data tillhandahålls av de enskilda börserna. Vi tittar på det egna kapitalet endast sätta samtalsförhållandena, förutom indexet sätta upp volymförhållandena. För putcall-data uppdaterad varannan timme kan du använda den här länken till Chicago Board Options Exchange: cboeMktDatadefault. asp Vi tittar på volymen på NYSE och jämför den med läsningar gjorda samtidigt på tidigare dagar. Vilka tidsramar tittar du på. Vår första nattliga analys görs alltid av dagliga och veckovisa tidsramar. Under handelsdagen använder vi 15, 30, 60 och 120-minuters diagram. För SP-futures är 1 och 5 minuters diagram också till hjälp. Oftast tenderar vi att titta på det sista priset. En näringsidkare, som kan övervaka de grundläggande stöd - och motståndsnivåerna genom att titta på bandåtgärden, är ofta ett steg före näringsidkaren med hjälp av stapeldiagram. Det är också lättare att övervaka flera marknader och marknadsinternals samtidigt när man tittar på ett citatkort istället för diagram. Var god ange TICK, TIKI, TRIN och VIX. TICK: Detta är nettoförändringen av alla NYSE-aktier på en uptick minus alla NYSE-aktier på en downtick. Plus eller minus 1200 tenderar att vara en extrem läsning. I en trenderande marknad kan extremiteter i ticks användas som en momentumindikator som indikerar ytterligare prisrörelse för att komma i riktning mot trenden. men när marknaden är i konsolideringsläge, efter att den redan har haft ett stort drag, kommer fästingar att markera ändarna på kort sikt svänger upp och ner. TIKI: Detta är skillnaden mellan alla DOW-aktier på en uptick minus alla DOW-aktier på en downtick. Plus 24 eller minus 24 tenderar att vara extrema avläsningar. TRIN: TRIN är också känt som ARMS Index efter sin skapare, Dick Arms. Den beräknas på följande sätt: (Förbättring av problemfrågor) (Upp VolumeDown-volymen). Vi ser riktningen TRIN rör sig för att indikera den övergripande utvecklingen på marknaden. Till exempel, om TRIN går från 0,80 till 1,00, skulle detta innebära att försäljningen kommer in på marknaden. VIX: Detta är volatilitetsindex som baseras på den implicita volatiliteten hos de pengar som OEX sätter och ringer. De flesta realtidsdata matar över dessa indikatorer. Däremot kan olika dataflöden använda olika symboler. Om du har några frågor angående symbolkoden, kontakta din dataleverantör direkt. Vad är en Z-dag En Z-dag är en konsolideringsdag som ofta följer en trenddag. Morgontiden präglas av en testning fram och tillbaka i prisåtgärden. Vi använder en annan uppsättning handelsstrategier på dessa dagar än vi gör på andra dagar. En av våra favoritaffärer är bollingerbandshandeln. se bollingerbandets förklaringar i FAQ. Vad är en NR7-dag En NR7 är en dag där dagens dagliga utbud (dagens höga pris minus lågt pris) är smalare än de föregående sex dagarna. Betydelsen av detta mönster är att den representerar en markant nedgång i prisvolatiliteten. Räckvidden och en ökning av prisvolatiliteten tenderar att följa en NR7-dag. En NR4-dag liknar en NR7-dag, förutom att den representerar en dag där intervallet är smalare än de föregående tre dagarna. Toby Crabel presenterade ursprungligen begreppen NR4, NR7, WR7 etc. i hans Market Analytics Letter skrivet på 1980-talet. Vi ger honom kredit för att initiera forskning på detta område. Hans ursprungliga artiklar publicerades i tidningen Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. Vad är en WR7-dag En WR7 är en dag där dagens dagliga sortiment (dagens höga pris minus lågt pris) är större än vad som är de senaste 6 dagarna. Betydelsen av detta mönster är att den representerar en expansion i prisvolatiliteten. En näringsidkare kan ofta köpa eller sälja ett test på WR7-dagarna hög eller låg, den följande dagen för hårbottenhandel. Vad är 2-tiden ROC Den 2-åriga räntesatsen är idag nära minus de närmaste två dagarna sedan. Till exempel, för att få fredagen 2-period ROC, skulle du subtrahera onsdagar nära från fredagar nära. 2-periodens ROC är användbar för att markera en två till tre dagers handelscykel som förklaras i Taylor Trading Technique. Rå momentum är det enda prisavledet som vi har funnit för att ge statistiskt signifikanta resultat i vår kvantitativa forskning. Våra resultat med denna indikator har visat sig vara hållbara och robusta på alla marknader. Vad är Average True Range (ATR) Den genomsnittliga True Range (ATR) introducerades av Welles Wilder i sin bok, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. ATR är ett mått på volatilitet, och det är en del av ADX-indikatorn. ATR beräknas genom att hitta det största värdet av: 1. Avståndet från dagens höga till dagens låga. 2. Avståndet från gårdagarna nära dagens höga. 3. Avståndet från gårdagarna nära dagens låga. Den största skillnaden mellan ATR och det vanliga dagliga intervallet är att ATR tar hänsyn till luckor. Vad är en divergens En divergens uppträder när en momentindikator eller ett annat instrument misslyckas med att bekräfta ett drag i prisåtgärden på marknaden under observation. Till exempel, om SP-futuren gör ett nytt lågt pris, men 310-oscillatorn misslyckas med att göra en ny momentum låg, sägs SP vara avvikande från oscillatorn. På samma sätt, om SP-futurerna gör ett nytt lågt som inte bekräftas av nya nedgångar i en relaterad marknad eller index (till exempel SP versus Dow Industrials, eller SP versus TICK), anses detta också som en form av divergens. Skillnader är användbara genom att de varnar för en förlust av momentum och ofta föregår en prissänkning. Vad är Keltner Channels Keltner Channels är en form av tradingband ritade direkt ovanpå ett prisdiagram, i motsats till prisdiagrammet som i fallet med en oscillator eller volym. Banden är baserade på en ATR-funktion centrerad kring ett glidande medelvärde. Vi använder ett värde på 2,5 ATRs som läggs till och subtraheras från ett 20-årigt exponentiellt glidande medelvärde för att skapa våra band. Vad är skillnaden mellan Keltner Channels och Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands baseras på en standardavvikelse funktion. Mycket ofta ser du tider där marknaden rör sig HÖGER men det lägre Bollinger-bandet minskar. Detta sker inte med Keltner-kanaler. Även om båda är baserade på en volatilitetsfunktion, kommer Keltner Channels bibehålla en mer konstant bredd än Bollinger Bands och därmed finner vi dem mer tilltalande för vårt öga. Vi har också haft mycket bättre framgång med att använda intervallfunktioner i vår kvantitativa modellering i motsats till standardavvikelsefunktioner, särskilt när vi skapar kortsiktiga tidssystem. Bollinger Band-branschen använder vi 2,5 standardavviksband centrerade kring ett 20-års glidande medelvärde för att göra affärer dagen efter en trenddag. Vi gör dessa affärer endast på morgonen. Konceptet bakom detta är att ett tryck till det övre eller nedre bandet kommer att inrätta en mottrendshandel. målet är ett tryck tillbaka till det glidande medlet. inga stopp användes vid testningen, vi använde bara en utgång när handeln slog det glidande medlet eller slutet av dagen i det sämre möjliga scenariot. A-B-C är en term lånad från Elliot Wave-terminologi som betecknar ett trevågskorrigeringsmönster som ofta finns mitt i en trend. Vågor A, B och C är ofta av samma storlek i både pris och tid, och mönstret tenderar att utgöra en zigzag. Vad är parametrarna för 310-oscillatorn För att konstruera denna oscillator, subtrahera först ett 10-årigt enkelt glidande medelvärde från ett 3-årigt enkelt glidande medelvärde. Vi hänvisar ofta till detta som snabblinjen. Skapa sedan ett 16-årigt enkelt glidande medelvärde för snabblinjen - vi hänvisar till den här raden som den långsamma linjen. Det är också användbart att plotta en horisontell linje vid nollvärdet. Vi sammanfattar alla tre linjerna tillsammans på våra kartor under priset. För vissa indikatorer, som 310-oscillatorn, ger vi abonnenter med nedladdningsbara TradeStation-kodfiler. När vi hänvisar till EMA, kommer vi alltid att referera till ett 20-årigt exponentiellt glidande medelvärde. Denna linje kan anses vara en proxy för en regression till medelvärdet på en trendmarknad. Det har litet värde på en handelsmarknad. Till skillnad från ett enkelt glidande medelvärde, som tar genomsnittspriset för de sista X-perioderna, tar EMA-metoden ett vägt genomsnitt av det senaste priset och genomsnittspriset från fältet före. Vilken storlek stannar använder du Generellt använder vi ett initialt stopp på 5 poäng i SP-futuren om inget annat anges. För hårbotten handlar i SP, använder vi ett 3-punkts stopp. På de inhemska terminsmarknaderna använder vi ett fast 500 stopp per kontrakt om inget annat anges. Om det finns en ovanlig expansion i volatiliteten, kommer vi att använda bredare stopp och sänka vår hävstångseffekt. Stopp bör stramas upp när en marknad flyttas till din fördel. I lager rekommenderar vi att du använder stopp för att begränsa förluster till högst 2 av ditt rörelsekapital. Hur går du in i positioner Vid bedömning av huruvida du ska använda marknaden, begränsa eller vila stopporder för att dra oss in i en handel, bedömer vi likviditetsförhållandena och typen av marknadsmiljö (dvs trendig, urtagen osv.). Varje näringsidkare måste slutligen hitta sina EGEN stil som fungerar bäst för dem över tiden. Har du viloplämningsorder på marknaden Större delen av tiden håller vi våra stopporder på marknaden. Undantagen tenderar att vara när en lucköppning förväntas, i vilket fall vi släpper marknaden först och lägger sedan stoppen strax utanför det tidiga morgonområdet. Det andra undantaget är när de nuvarande likviditetsförhållandena är dåliga och vi har en stor position på. Detta har varit fallet på vissa marknader som kaffe, där det är föredraget att låta mäklaren arbeta utgående order inom ett fast tidsfönster. Hur lägger du dina order i SP-futures Vi ringer de flesta beställningar direkt till futurespit. Under de senaste åren har vi emellertid också använt e-minis med elektronisk orderingång, särskilt då likviditeten har flyttat till denna marknad. Vad menar du när du hänvisar till premie Det verkliga värdet premier är det teoretiska terminspriset minus kontantindexpriset. Verkligt värde beskriver hur långt terminsavtalet bör handlas över eller under kassaflödet med förväntade utdelningsinkomster för aktierna i indexet, antalet dagar till utgången av terminsavtalet och den korta räntan. När SPs handlar med premie eller rabatt hänvisar vi till en situation där terminerna handlar över eller under deras verkliga värde. Vad är det historiska volatilitetsförhållandet Det här är förhållandet mellan två olika längder av historisk volatilitet (till exempel förhållandet mellan 25-dagars och 100-dagars historisk volatilitet). Vi använder denna indikator för att varna oss till tider när den korta volatiliteten har minskat under långsiktig volatilitet med en viss procentuell tröskel. Dessa signaler är ofta föregångare till ökad volatilitet. Vad är BOBO - på ditt handelsblad Dessa är parametrarna för ett proprietärt volatilitetsbrytningssystem som vi handlar under vissa perioder. Ett köp utlöses vid en paus över det övre numret och kort utlöses vid rast under det lägre numret. Vad är Golf System Golf är ett proprietärt system som går in i SP-futuren på nära håll. LBRGroup publicerade detta system i en rådgivande tjänst mellan 1993 och 1998. Vi handlade det också mekaniskt för vårt förvaltade framtidsprogram. Vi slutade trading det mekaniskt när volatiliteten över natten blev för stor under Asien-krisen, men vi använder den fortfarande som en tidsindikator. Den baseras delvis på 2-periodens ROC och streckdiagrammönster. Vad är eftermiddags 2-punktshandel 2-punktsspelet är inte ett diagrammönster. Det är något vi började göra i realtid i oktober 2004. Det är inte heller ett mekaniskt system, eftersom det inte finns något faststopp annat så slutar en tid. Stoppet är 24 timmar. Det är en tendens baserad på mönsterigenkänning (antal dagar upp eller ner längs och grad av trend). Det är något vi började göra för oss ursprungligen, och andra medlemmar har börjat använda det också. Handeln initieras vid återupptagandet av Emini-kontakten efter det att marknaden stängt (dvs början på Globex-sessionen). Mycket ofta är 2-poängs målet träffat i Globex-sessionen, varför vi inte arbetar dessa branscher för rummet, men bara sätter in vad de kommer att vara för din egen kunskap. Det har förekommit tider där 2-poängs målet inte uppnås förrän dagens session nästa dag. Självklart kommer det att finnas en tidpunkt då målet inte uppnås alls. Vad är RAT-handeln Råtthandeln är en eftermiddagsbristhandel som vi gör i SPs på dagar där det finns tung institutionell verksamhet. Det är inte baserat på en specifik diagrambildning, och parametrarna och filtren för denna handel är proprietära. Vad är det senaste samtalet? Detta är en handel som gjorts under den sista timmen i indexindexen. Det liknar Push in i Noon Hour tidsramen som vi gör på morgonen. (Medlemmar kan hänvisa till detta i Trade Library Setup). Inställningen för senaste samtalet baseras på en kombination av bardiagrammönsterigenkänning och marknadsbreddsparametrar. Vad är en pivotpunkt Det här kan vara en tidigare sväng hög eller låg eller synlig diagrampunkt, t. ex. hög eller låg av ett mellanrum. Globexhöjder och låga, tillsammans med de tidigare dagarna höga och låga, är alla former av svängpunkter. Vi använder inte Fibonacci-nummer eller godtyckliga beräkningar. Vi är intresserade av nivåer som alla marknadsaktörer är medvetna om, vilket skulle vara fallet med en nyckel hög eller låg. Vilka är de röda gröna röda mönstren i stapeldiagrammen som du lägger ut Den här färgenregeln är baserad på en genomsnittlig sant intervallfunktion som har lagts till eller subtraherats från föregående sväng hög eller låg. Det är en variant av den paraboliska stopp och omvänd formel publicerad av Welles Wilder i sin bok, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Vi finner att det ger ett användbart mönsterigenkänning i att markera de kortsiktiga gungorna i ett stapeldiagram. Allmänna handelsrelaterade frågor Tick Charts vs. Time Interval på de flesta mjukvaruapplikationer skulle ett 1600 tick-diagram av sps motsvara ett 5-minuters diagram. och ett 3600 tick-diagram liknar en 15 min tidsram. vi föredrar att använda dessa typ av tick-diagram i tidigt morgon session eftersom de justerar globex-handeln i förhållande till aktivitetsnivån. Endast dagdiagram på ett 5 min-intervall kan vara för lyckligt, medan 5 min-diagram på en 24-timmarsbasis tenderar att vara snedvridna. Vad är relativ styrka och relativ svaghet som vi pratar om i online-handelsrummen Enkelt uttryckt är ett lager eller en sektor som har relativ styrka bättre än ett relaterat index, som SP500 eller Nasdaq. Relativ svaghet skulle vara en sektor eller ett lager som underpresterar ett referensindex. Med råvaror är den relativa styrelseledaren den som utför bäst på dagen. Tidigare morgon relativa styrkor ledare fortsätter vanligtvis att göra bäst under hela dagen. Vad är SPY amp QQQ SPY och QQQ är Exchange Traded Funds. De representerar en korg av aktier som efterliknar sammansättningen SampP 500 och Nasdaq100 aktieindex. De handlar på en utbyte precis som enskilda aktier och kan säljas kort efter en nedgång. I huvudsak tillåter de dig att handla hela aktieindexet mycket som SP eller Nasdaq-futures. I motsats till terminkontrakt upphör emellertid QQQ och SPY inte och är inga leveransinstrument. Hur ser du så många marknader Majoriteten av tiden tittar vi på ett citatkort som ger oss sista pris istället för att titta på diagram på varje enskild marknad. På så sätt kan vi övervaka flera prisnivåer utöver olika marknadsindex och marknadsinternals. Om vi vill titta på diagrammen på en viss marknad drar vi upp en skärm med 30, 60 och 120 minuters tidsramar. SPs och ibland är obligationerna vanligtvis de enda marknaderna där vi kommer att titta på diagram på en kortare tidsram. Positioner på de flesta andra marknader skrivs in med avsikt att bära en vinnande position över natten. Varför tittar du på så många aktier Aktier som är marknadsledare kan ofta vända innan aktieindex futures gör. Detta gäller speciellt för de höga betongmomentlagren. Övervakning av enskilda sektorer och relativ styrka kan ge värdefull information om marknadens övergripande tekniska villkor. Vi begränsar vår databas till endast de 250 största aktiehandelarna. Vilken typ av mäklare ska jag använda Undvik mäklare med webbläsarbaserade orderingångssystem. Använd en mäklare som erbjuder en fullt integrerad handelsplattform (fristående programvara) med pek och klick orderrutning och körning. Du måste göra din egen forskning för att bestämma vilket företag att göra affärer med. Om du inte är nöjd med din nuvarande mäklare är det väldigt enkelt att prova en annan. Vi upprätthåller konton hos flera företag och anser att det är viktigt att ha flera relationer om det någonsin är ett problem med ett företag eller en geografisk störning i en del av landet. Vilken dataflöde och programvara använder du data i realtidsdata: Hur kan jag se vad som hände varje dag i online-handelsrummen För LBR Futures Live och LBR Stock Beat, postar vi transkript av varje dagsaktivitet på vår hemsida. Dessa utskrifter finns i avsnittet Medlemsservice på vår hemsida. För LBR-valutor arkiverar vi inte utskrifter. Men vårt Valutorum kommer att vara öppet 48 timmar, vilket ger medlemmarna möjlighet att enkelt hänvisa till tidigare uppgifter. Jag vill vara med i din tjänst. Vad måste jag veta om aktiemarknaden Även om förkunskap och erfarenhet inte är strikt krävs är det viktigt att du förstår att handel innebär risk. Vår online-handelstjänst är pedagogisk och kommer att vara av bästa värde för dig om du kan övervaka marknaderna i realtid. Jag har fortfarande ett annat jobb. Kan jag handla deltid Ja. Du bestämmer dig för taktiken i ditt lärande. Du kanske börjar på deltid och bestämmer senare om det här kan vara början på en ny karriär för dig. Kom ihåg att den tid och energi du lägger i lärandet kommer att löna sig på vägen. Men vi har ännu inte stött på en näringsidkare som konsekvent kan stödja sig genom att handla deltid. I slutändan är handel ett heltidsjobb, och många nya företagare är ofta förvånad över de långa timmarna som professionella handlare ägnar sig åt sin studie av marknaderna. Hur många affärer gör vi varje dag Det finns ingen vanlig dag, och antalet affärer varierar med volatiliteten hos de aktier och terminsavtal som vi handlar. Men vi finner det bättre att vara tålmodig och vänta på några väl genomtänkta höga sannolikhetsuppsättningar, än att lösa sig för marginella affärer. Vi finner att när handlare börjar överträffa de blir slarviga och gör misstag. Jag kan inte vara nära en dator hela dagen - har du några andra förslag till mig Vårt Grundläggande Online-medlemskap erbjuder uppställningar och handelsideer som kan implementeras utan att du behöver titta på skärmen under dagen. Dessa branscher inkluderar optionsspel och långsiktiga aktiehandelstransaktioner. Hur lång tid tar det att lära sig att handla framgångsrikt Enligt vår erfarenhet är den genomsnittliga längden på tid som krävs för att en person ska kunna handla med den konsistens och det förtroende som krävs för att göra ett anständigt liv, ungefär tre år. Vissa människor kan aldrig göra det, eftersom de inte kan behärska den mentala sidan av spelet. Några personer har snabbt kunnat hitta sin nisch och visar konsekvent lönsamhet efter bara 6 månader. Detta är undantaget dock. Vilka är de viktigaste sakerna som en daghandlare behöver lyckas Vilka metoder finns tillgängliga för att få tillgång till chattrummen Vi erbjuder alla medlemmar två metoder för att få tillgång till vår livechatt: 1. Fristående mjukvarumetod 2. Browserbaserad metod Båda metoderna erbjuder samma anslutningshastighet och leverera samma information. Vi finner att de flesta föredrar den fristående programvaran för dess funktioner, till exempel flera visningsfönster. När du har loggat in (klicka på Futures Live, Stock Beat eller Valutaknapparna längst upp till vänster på vår hemsida) kommer du till en sida med fullständig information för att få tillgång till båda metoderna, inklusive instruktioner för nedladdning av vår fristående chattprogramvara. Obs! Vårt livechatsystem tillåter inte att köra båda metoderna samtidigt. Du kan inte heller köra vårt chattsystem på två separata datorer samtidigt. Vad gäller videofunktionen och hur får jag tillgång till det Från och med juni 2006 uppgraderade vi vår fristående chattprogramvara för att inkludera ett direktvideo i Lindas dator. Alla medlemmar i Futures Live och Stock Beat kommer att ha tillgång till denna funktion utan extra kostnad. Med den här funktionen kan du se de faktiska kartorna och indikatorerna som Linda och hennes personal använder när de sätter upp affärer och samtalar i chattrummen. För mer information om den här funktionen, klicka här. Behöver jag den senaste versionen av din chattprogramvara för att komma åt videofunktionen Var hämtar jag den senaste versionen av din chattprogramvara Den senaste versionen är tillgänglig genom att klicka på Futures Live eller Stock Beat-knapparna längst upp till vänster på vår hemsida. När du anger ditt användarnamn och lösenord får du möjlighet att ladda ner programfilen. Kan du visa mig mer detaljerat hur du loggar in på det webbaserade chat-systemet För fullständiga instruktioner, klicka här. Hur får jag webblänkar (aka hyperlänkar) för att fungera i chattfönstret jag klickar på dem, men inget händer. När du placerar musen över en länk i chattrummen kommer länken inte att ändra sitt utseende som du normalt sett skulle se på en vanlig webbsida. Var inte orolig, det här är normalt. Du måste placera musen direkt över länken och dubbelklicka sedan. Din Internet Explorer-webbläsare ska då öppnas. Också - länken måste vara på en rad i chattfönstret. Om länken är uppdelad i två linjer, så omformar du bara ditt fönster för att få länken tillbaka till en rad text. Jag kan inte få chattprogrammet att fungera. Om du använder någon form av popup-blockerare eller brandväggsenheter på din dator kan detta påverka och eventuellt förhindra att chattprogramvaran fungerar. Kontrollera att du har den senaste Java Runtime Environment (JRE) installerad. Den senaste versionen finns här. Observera våra minsta systemkrav: - High Speed Internet Connection (DSL eller kabelmodem) föreslog - Win98, NT, 2000, XP - Java-aktiverad webbläsare (kan kräva att Microsoft Java Virtual Machine uppdateras eller installeras eller SUN Java Runtime Environment : java. sungetjava) OBS till systemadministratörer: Våra Live Chat-applikationer var utformade för att använda direktanslutning till Internet. Om du använder NAT andor ett brandväggssystem, ska det tillåta utgående anslutning till port 8523 hos vår server (lbrgroup). Även portmappning kan användas på din Internetgateway. Vad är Open Forum rum som används för Open Forum rum är speciella rum bara för medlemmar att prata med varandra. Dessa rum kommer att ha ett tomt textfält under fönstret där du kan skriva in dina kommentarer. Efter att du har skrivit, skickar du dina kommentarer till rummet genom att bara trycka på Retur eller Enter på tangentbordet. Hur skickar jag ett privat meddelande Du kan skicka privata meddelanden till andra medlemmar såväl som till rummets moderatorer. Placera bara musen över namnet på personen du vill skicka ett meddelande till, och högerklicka. Välj sedan Privat session. Detta öppnar ett nytt fönster för att du ska skicka och ta emot ditt privata meddelande. När du har skrivit ditt meddelande i textfältet längst ner i chattfönstret, tryck på tangentbordets returnyckel för att skicka meddelandet. Observera att listan med medlemsnamn och moderatornamn endast kommer att visas i Open Forum-rummen, till höger. Hur anpassar jag typsnittstypen Både fristående och webbaserade chatmetoder gör att du kan justera typsnittstorleken. Placera musen över ett textområde i transkriptfönstret, högerklicka på musen. Du kan sedan välja en anpassad typstorlek från listan. Vilka andra användarstyrda inställningar kan jag göra på fristående programvaran I den fristående programvaran, placera musen över den lilla blåikonen som finns i övre vänstra hörnet av chattfönstret. Välj sedan någon av följande kontroller: - Multi Window-läge. ändras från enkel fönsterläge till flervynsläge. - Alltid på topp . håller programvaran från att bli dolda av andra program som körs på din dator. - Spela ljud. slår på och av alla rums ljudljud. - Spela EMA. slår på och av det subtila typljudet när meddelanden sänds in i huvudrummen. Hur aktiverar jag kopian, klipp och klistra in funktioner i chattprogrammen Det krävs att du justerar säkerhetsinställningarna i din webbläsare (Internet Explorer). Vänligen klicka här för att komma åt en PDF-fil med detaljerade instruktioner för att ändra dessa inställningar. Filen kräver Adobe Acrobat-visning. General Website Questions How can I cancel or change my service In the Member Services area of our web page, you will find links to Modify my Profile . How do I ask questions Sending us an email is the easiest way. Please see the Contact Us area of our web site. How do I print text found on your web site pages To print the class transcripts, guest lectures or other text items (without also printing all the formatted headers and other content on the page) heres what you do: 1. Simply select the text with your mouse (i. e. highlight the area you want to print). 2. Right click your mouse and select copy. 3. Open up Microsoft Notepad (look under Start--gtPrograms--gtAccessories--gtNotepad) and then simply paste in the text (right click mouse and select paste). 4. Voila -- you are ready to print the text (make sure youre printer is turned on) 5. For charts simply place your mouse on top of the chart - then right click - and save as to your hard-drive. Go to the saved file, click on the file to open it, and proceed to print. How do I print Charts 1. Right click your mouse on top of the chart you want to save, and select Save Picture As. 2. Save the chart image file to your harddrive. 3. Open chart image file by double clicking on file, then select Print from the Edit menu of you software. Why do charts print with such a dark background color Virtually all charts on this site are created with Aspen Graphics software. We realize that they do not print well with a dark background. We apologize for the inconvenience. The trade off is that we are able to manipulate the color rules and write our own formulas to show you unique and useful trading patterns. Why does it say no gaps on some of your charts in the Daily Educational Charts These charts are generated by Aspen Graphics. No gaps means that the data is compressed to eliminate holidays where the markets are closed. If this function is not turned on, a gap will appear in the data for the holiday session. ADX . Trend strength oscillator originally developed J. Welles Wilder Jr. that fluctuates between 0 and 100. BEAMER . Nickname for IBM BEAR FLAG . Classic bar chart pattern that occurs in a trending market, a bearish continuation pattern. BEAR TRAP . A bear trap occurs when the market breaks below chart support, bringing traders in on the short side, then quickly reverses, trapping traders with losses. BREADTH . The difference between the number of advancing issues and the number of declining issues on the NYSE. BREAKOUT TRADE . A trade that occurs when the market breaks above or below some pre-define range, usually a nearby support or resistance levels such as the previous days high or low, or the last 60 minutes highlow. Breakouts are often associated with low volatility readings. BULL FLAG . Classic bar chart pattern that occurs in a trending market, a bullish continuation pattern. BULL TRAP . A bull trap occurs when the market breaks above chart resistance, bringing traders in on the long side, then quickly reverses, trapping traders with losses. BURNING DOG . This is the phrase used to describe the tendency for the SPs to retrace back into a gap area by N - amount after a gap of N-amount. Though we make trades off this pattern in the futures room in the morning after a gap on certain days, this phrase describes a tendency only, and is not a mechanical trade setup. COMPRESSION METER . LBRGroups proprietary volatility index used to signal potential for longer term breakouts. COWS . Nickname for the Live Cattle futures CREEPER MARKET . A market that slowly creeps higher without a significant retracement. One of the strongest types of trending action that does not catch peoples attention. DISCOUNT (SPs) . When the price of the future is trading lower than fair Value DIVERGENCE . A divergence is indicated when momentum fails to confirm a new low or new high in the price. Divergences usually show up best with oscillators such as the 310 and 535 MACD. EDGE . Term used to describe when a trader has the advantage or a favorable margin. It is even better when this margin can be quantified statistically. EMA . Exponential Moving Average. We use a 20-period setting EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL . The point at which buyers and sellers are in balance. Coincides with a neutral chart point that is often at the end of a consolidation period. EVENT RISK . The risk that some unexpected event will cause a substantial change in the market value of a security. For example, missed earnings, lawsuits, crop failures, war, etc. FADE . A countertrend trade FAIR VALUE . Fair value reflects the relationship between stock index futures and the indexs current levels. It is a theoretical estimate of where the futures should be trading based on their underlying cash index with short-term interest rates and dividends factored into the calculation. Determining the fair value relationship between the SampP 500 futures contract and the underlying SampP 500 index requires adding the cost of borrowing the money to buy the SampP 500 stocks, while subtracting the gain these stocks pay in dividends. FILL OR KILL . This means do it now if the stock is available in the crowd or from the specialist, otherwise kill the order altogether. GOLF . A mechanical trade that is made in the SP futures that is entered on the close of the day. GRAIL . A trade set-up based on a pullback to the 20 period EMA after the 14 period ADX has risen above 30. Pullback in rallies are bought, and pullbacks in declines are sold short. This pattern was discussed at lenght in Street Smarts. IMPULSE . Increase in the market momentum. Impulse moves tend to happen in the direction of the trend. On a bar chart they have the appearance of a sharp markup or markdown. INSTITUTIONS . Mutual funds, pension funds, banks, and large commercials KELTNER CHANNELS . A trading band indicator that is displayed on top of price charts. Similar to Bollinger Bands but calculated differently, using true-range rather than standard deviation. LAST CALL . Trade that setups up in the last hour of a trend day LOAD THE BOAT . Use full line of leverage MACD . An oscillator based on the difference between two moving averages. We use the difference between a 3 and 10-period simple moving average MARK UP . A Wyckoff term, used to denote the phase of the market where prices rise, from the beginning of a bull market to its top. MARKET LEADERSHIP . Market leadership refers to those sectors and industries that are currently bringing in the best returns. MARKET ORDER . An order to buy or sell a stock immediately at the best available current price. A market order guarantees execution. MIT . Market-if-touched order. An order which becomes a market order if the specified price is reached. MOC . Market-on-close order. A buy or sell order which is to be executed as a market order as close as possible to the end of the day. MOMENTUM . The difference between the last price and the price N-numbers bar. A 2-period Rate of Change (ROC) is the same as a 2-period Momentum. NAZDOG . Nickname for the Nasdaq100 index. NAZDOGGIE . Name of Linda8217s adorable little Pomeranian. See photo gallery . NR7 . The narrowest high-low range of the past seven days. OODA . The OODA Loop, often called Boyd8217s Cycle, is a creation of Col. John Boyd, USAF (Ret.). Col. Boyd was a student of tactical operations and observed a similarity in many battles and campaigns. He noted that in many of the engagements, one side presented the other with a series of unexpected and threatening situations with which they had not been able to keep pace. The slower side was eventually defeated. What Col. Boyd observed was the fact that conflicts are time competitive. According to Boyd8217s theory, conflict can be seen as a series of time-competitive, Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) cycles. OOPS TRADE . A term originally coined by Larry Williams which refers to a market that gaps below the previous days low (or above the previous days high) and then quickly reverses its direction. OOZE . Down trending price action that slowly inches down without any upward reactions of any magnitude. One of the strongest forms of trending action. OPENING BULGE . Period after the opening when the public has a tendency to pay too high a price. OPENING PLAY . The markets first tendency of the day OUCH SETUPS . When a market Closes in the upper 75 of its range but then gaps lower the next day around the previous days low (vice versa to the upside). OVERHEAD SUPPLY . Are where the market had found support in the past but the price is currently trading lower. PEA SHOOTER DAY . Our SP brokers affectionate term for when the institutions are absent and the majority of the paper in the SP pit consists of 1s and 2s. PIVOT . A market reference point. Our most frequently used pivots are swing highs and swing lows such as the high and low of a daily bar or the highs and lows of the hourly cycles. POWER BUYSELL . A retracement formation that combines two time frames. For a chart example of this setup, members can reference the trade library setup. PREMIUM (SPs) . When the price of an index future is trading greater than Fair Value. PUSH INTO THE NOON HOUR TIMEFRAME . Trade that setup around 11:00 EST on a trend day RAT TRADE . An afternoon breakout trade that is made in the LBRFutures Room RESISTANCE . Area where Sellers have come in the past. ROBUST . Refers to a method or system that is profitable across a variety of markets, time frames and parameters. It is the opposite curve-fit or optimized. SCALP . A Short-term trade that capitalizes on the markets smaller fluctuations. SHAKEOUT FAKEOUT . A sharp downward move following an area of distribution that quickly reverses itself and comes back up through the distribution area. SHORT SKIRT . The name of a very short term pattern trade taken on a one-minute SampP and Nasdaq futures charts. A form of pullback trade on a very short time frame. SKIDS . Slippage or the difference between the price that a stop order was placed and the actual fill price. SLOP AND CHOP . Action in the market when institutions are absent and liquidity is poor. SMA . Simple Moving Average SPRING . Originally a Wyckoff term, is used to denote an impulsive move often associated with a test of support. See also Upthrust. STOP ORDER . An order that becomes a market order when the price touches that level. SUMTICK . LBRGroups proprietary summation Tick index SUPPORT . Area where buyers have stepped in the past. SWEET STUFF . Nickname for the sugar futures THREE PUSHES . A characteristic pattern that occurs near important turning points. Usually three distinct test of a high or low level, followed by a reversal. 3 OCLOCK JIGGLE . A scalp trade that sets up in the SPs around the time that the bonds close. TICK . Smallest increment that a price can change. 1 tick on an e-mini contract .25 points, which is the equivalent of 12.50. TICKS . The difference between the number of issues on the NYSE that are trading UP from the last trade versus the number of issues that are trading down. TREND DAY . A day where the market opens on one end of its range, closes on the opposite end, shows range expansion and has an increase in volume. TRIGGER . Level at which a trade will be initiated if a market trades to that price. TRIN . The TRIN (also know as the Trading Index and the ARMS Index) was invented by Richard Arms in the 1970s. It is calculated as follows: (Advancing issues Declining issues) divided by (Advancing volume Declining volume). If the index is above one, the average volume of stocks that fell on the NYSE was greater than the average volume of stocks that rose. If the index is below one, then the converse is true. UPTHRUST . Originally a Wyckoff term, is used to denote an impulsive move often associated with a test of resistance. See also Spring. VIX . VIX is a weighted measure of the implied volatility for 8 OEX put and call options. VIX represents the implied volatility for this hypothetical at-the-money OEX option. VOLATILITY . The range of the price action over N - Number of bars. WEDGE . A low volatility point in which a triangle type formation can be drawn on the bar charts. The market can break out in EITHER direction from this formation. WHIPSAW . Is when the market rapidly reverses its direction several times in succession. WIRE . Nickname for the Copper Market Z DAY . A consolidation day that typically follows a trend day. Introduction The previous article looked at what moving averages are and how to calculate them. This article now looks at how to implement these in Web Intelligence. The formula used here are compatible with the XIr3 version of SAP BOE however some formula may work in previous versions if available. We8217ll begin by looking at how to calculate a simple moving average before looking at weighted and exponential forms. Worked Examples The examples below all use same data set which is of stock price data in an Excel file which you can download. The first column in the file is the day of the stock price and then columns of opening price, highest price in the day, lowest price, closing price, volume and adjusted closing price. We8217ll use closing price in our analysis below along with the Date object. Simple Moving Average There is a couple of ways by which we can calculate simple moving averages. One option is to use the Previous function to obtain the value of a previous row. For example the following formula calculates a moving average on our closing stock price for a moving average data set of size 3, This is quite a simple formula however it is obvious it is not practical when we have a large number of periods here we can make use of RunningSum formula and for a data set of size N we have Finally we have a 3rd technique, Which although more complicated it may have better performance as it is calculating the new value based on previous value rather than two running sums over the full data set. However this formula only works after the Nth point in the overall data set and since it refers to a previous value we must also set a starting value. Below is the full formula used for our stock price analysis where our moving average period is 15 days, The date 1252010 is the 15th data point in our data set and so for this point we calculate a normal average using the RunningSum. For all dates beyond this value we use our SMA formula and we leave blank all dates prior to this date. Figure 1 below is a chart in Web Intelligence displaying our stock price data with a simple moving average. Figure 1. Web Intelligence Document displaying a Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average A weighted moving average formula with a period of 3 is, As with our first simple moving average formula above this is only practical for a small number of periods. I have not yet been able to find a simple formula that can be used for larger moving average periods. Mathematically it is possible but limitations with Web Intelligence means that these formulas don8217t convert. If anyone is able to do this I would love to hear The figure below is an WMA of period 6 implemented in Web Intelligence. Figure 2. Web Intelligence document of a Weighted Moving Average Exponential Moving Average An exponential moving average is quite straight forward to implement in Web Intelligence and so is a suitable alternative to a Weighted Moving Average. The basic formula is Here we8217ve hard coded 0.3 as our value for alpha. We only apply this formula for periods greater than our second period so we can use an if statement to filter these out. For our first and second period we can use the previous value and so our final formula for EMA is, Below is an example of an EMA applied to our stock data. Figure 3. Web Intelligence document display an Exponential Moving Average Input Controls As our EMA formula doesn8217t rely on the size of the moving average period and our only variable is alpha we can use Input Controls to allow the user to adjust the value of alpha. To do this, Create a new variable called 8216alpha8217 and define it8217s formula as, Update our EMA formula to, Create a new input control selecting our alpha variable as the input control report object Use a simple slider and set the following properties, Once done you should be able to move the slider and immediately see the changes to the trend line in the chart Conclusion We looked at how to implement three types of moving average in Web Intelligence and although all were possible the Exponential Moving Average is probably the easiest and most flexible. I hope you found this article interesting and as always any feedback is very welcome. Post navigation Leave a Reply Cancel reply You must be logged in to post a comment. The trick to Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is you have to create a variable which represents the numerators of WMA (see Wikipedia for reference.) This should look like the following: Previous(Self) (n Close) 8211 ( Previous(RunningSum(Close)) 8211 Previous(RunningSum(Close)n1) where n is the number of periods. Then the actual WMA8217s formula would be like this: Numerator (n (n 1) 2) where Numerator is the variable you created earlier. Current Employment Statistics Frequently Asked Questions Data Overview The establishment payroll survey, known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, is based on a survey of approximately 147,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 634,000 worksites throughout the United States. The primary statistics derived from the survey are monthly estimates of employment, hours, and earnings for the Nation, States, and major metropolitan areas. Preliminary National estimates for a given reference month are typically releas ed on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference period in conjunction with data derived from a separate survey of households, the Current Population Survey (CPS). The reference period for the CES survey is the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. For more information about the CES survey, see the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htm . CES compared with CPS The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is a monthly survey of business establishments (or jobs). CES produces estimates on the number of employees on nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average weekly earnings, and average weekly hours. The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households (or people). The household survey produces estimates about the labor force, the employed, the unemployed, the unemployment rate, and demographic information about the employed and unemployed. More information about the differences between the CPS and the CES surveys is available at bls. govwebempsitcescpstrends. pdf. For more information about the CPS survey, see the CPS homepage at bls. govcpshome. htm . CES compared with QCEW The CES and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) programs are related but do not report the exact same information at the same frequency. The QCEW program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages covering 98 percent of U. S. jobs, available at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), State, and National levels by industry. The CES program surveys about 147,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 634,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls on a monthly basis. Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax reports, submitted by nearly all businesses in the U. S. are used as both the input data for QCEW data and as the majority of the sample frame for the CES survey and cover almost all private industries and government agencies. CES employment figures are benchmarked each year in large part using data from the QCEW program because both programs use the pay period including the 12th of the month as the reference period for employment. QCEW quarterly wages include total compensation paid during the calendar quarter to all workers CES hours and earnings data are reported for all employees and for production or nonsupervisory employees in private industry who received pay (whether they worked or not) during any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. CES earnings do not include irregular bonuses or retroactive pay. CES data are published 3 weeks after the week that includes the 12th of the month, typically the first Friday of the following month. QCEW data are published much later, approximately 6 months after the end of the reference period. More information about the differences between the QCEW, CES, and other establishment-based employment measures is available at bls. govnews. releasecewqtr. tn. htm. For additional information about the QCEW survey visit bls. govcewcewover. htm. The household survey administered by the Current Population Survey (CPS) program and establishment survey administered by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program both produce sample-based estimates of employment and both have strengths and limitations. The establishment survey employment series has a smaller margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than the household survey because of its much larger sample size. An over-the-month employment change of about 100,000 is statistically significant in the establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 400,000. However, the household survey has a more expansive scope than the establishment survey because it includes self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey. The household survey also provides estimates of employment for demographic groups. More information about the differences between the two surveys is available at bls. govwebempsitcescpstrends. pdf. Available Data The Current Employment Statistics program administers the establishment survey and uses the data collected to produce monthly nonfarm payroll estimates. The types of data produced include the following: All employees Production or nonsupervisory employees (depending on industry) Women employees Average weekly hours Average hourly earnings (constant dollar and current dollar) Average weekly earnings Average overtime hours in manufacturing Indexes of aggregate hours and payrolls Diffusion indexes All data are available not seasonally adjusted, and some data are available seasonally adjusted. The Employment Situation report is released monthly, typically on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, which is the week that includes the 12th of the month. A table of upcoming Employment Situation release dates is available at bls. govcescestabl. htm . The BLS LABSTAT database, available at bls. govcesdata. htm. has only the latest published statistics. More information about how to access the BLS data using the data retrieval tools is available under Data Retrieval at (bls. govcescesfaq. htmDataRetrieval ). CES does not keep a separate database of first-published numbers. However, preliminary estimates for some data types for a limited level of industry detail can be obtained from archived news releases available here bls. govschedulearchivesempsitnr. htm. from the monthly online publication Employment and Earnings available here bls. govopubee. or from the monthly revision tables available here bls. govwebempsitcesnaicsrev. htm. Current Employment Statistics employment data date back to 1939 at the highest levels of aggregation. Most detailed industries only date back to 1990, and all employee hours and earnings series began in 2006. For a complete list of start dates for NAICS-based all employee series, see bls. govwebempsitcesseriespub. htm. Additionally, discontinued SIC-based employment estimates are available from 2003 going back to 1964 and in some cases as far back as 1939 or 1919. These series are not comparable with current CES NAICS-based series. To access these discontinued CES data, go to bls. govcesdata. htm. For more information about SIC coding of industries, visit bls. govcescesnaics. htm3.2.3 . Manufacturing and other goods-producing industries were the primary focus of early industry data produced by the BLS. Therefore, hours and earnings time series for these industries have a relatively long history. Data for manufacturing and its broadest industry categories begin in 1939, and for mining and construction, in 1947. Prior to 1964, however, the collection of hours and earnings data for the service-providing sector was limited to a few select industries. Given this incomplete industry coverage along with the size of the services portion of the economy, it was not possible to compute hours and earnings estimates for all of the private industries. Beginning in 1964, the collection of hours and earnings data for services was expanded to an extent sufficient to compute total private hours and earnings estimates. These estimates were first published in 1967. Discontinued SIC-based hours earnings estimates are available from 2003 going back to 1964 and in some cases as far back as 1947 or 1939. These series are not comparable with current CES NAICS-based series. To access these discontinued CES data, go to bls. govcesdata. htm. For more information about SIC coding of industries, visit bls. govcescesnaics. htm3.2.3. CES draws its sample and sets its benchmark employment level from the business establishment list maintained by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. This universe for business establishments is based on Unemployment Insurance (UI) administrative records, so workers who are not covered by UI will not be captured. In Agriculture there are numerous exemptions to requirements for UI coverage, making the sample frame for Agriculture insufficient for calculating statistically sound estimates. In addition, a substantial number of Agricultural enterprises are self-proprietorships, which are out of scope for the CES survey. Historically, the U. S. Department of Agricultures Census of Agriculture has been the primary survey used to measure farm labor. The Census of Agriculture is available at agcensus. usda. govindex. php . Some BLS data about Agricultural employment can be obtained from the QCEW (bls. govcewhome. htm ), Current Population Survey (bls. govcpshome. htm ), and Occupational Employment Statistics (bls. govoeshome. htm ) programs. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is examining the feasibility of publishing monthly CES employment, hours, and earnings estimates by firm size. Currently, BLS publishes the first preliminary CES employment estimates for a given month at selected industry detail. Subsequent estimates for that month are published in more industry detail with the following months first estimates. Research suggests that the available sample may make it feasible to publish monthly size-class employment estimates by major industry sector together with the first preliminary estimates. Employment change by firm size would add a valuable dimension of detail to understanding current employment trends. More information about the experimental CES size class series is available at bls. govcescessizeclass. htm. Some data by size of establishment are also available from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (bls. govcewhome. htm ) program. Classification CES estimates are categorized by ownership and industry. Respondents are assigned an ownership code mdash private or public with public ownership further divided into Federal, State, or local. Respondents are then assigned a North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. NAICS codes group establishments into industries based on the activity in which they are primarily engaged. Establishments using similar raw material inputs, similar capital equipment, and similar labor are classified in the same industry. More information about NAICS codes in general is available at bls. govblsnaics. htm. More information about NAICS codes in the CES program is available at bls. govcescesnaics. htm. CES survey respondents are categorized by Unemployment Insurance (UI) accounting code, location, ownership, size, and reporting unit. Each business has also been categorized into a certain industry by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. Establishments are stratified by UI account number for the purpose of sample allocation and selection. The sample strata, or subpopulations, are defined by State, metropolitan statistical area, industry, and employment size, yielding a state-based design. Thirteen industries (treating manufacturing as one industry and not including government) and 8 size classes result in 104 total allocation cells per state. More information about these categories and how they are used to draw the CES sample of establishments is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1a . After 60 years of use, CES retired the SIC system and replaced it with the NAICS. NAICS is the product of a collaborative effort between the United States (U. S.), Canada, and Mexico. A classification system shared across the three countries allows direct comparison of economic data across borders in North America. NAICS codes are not related to SIC codes rather NAICS is a completely redesigned way of coding industries. NAICS recognizes hundreds more businesses than SIC did, largely in the fast-growing service sector. The U. S. Census Bureau issued a notice, available at census. goveoswwwnaicsfederalregisternoticesnoticesfr09ap97.pdf. making NAICS effective in the U. S. in April 1997 and published the first NAICS U. S. manual in mid-1998. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not transition to the first version of NAICS, NAICS 1997. Instead, NAICS 2002 was the first version implemented by BLS, and the CES program converted from SIC to NAICS in June 2003. Reviews of NAICS are scheduled every 5 years NAICS 2012 is the most current version. More information about NAICS in the CES program is available at bls. govcescesnaics. htm. More information about the CES conversion from SIC to NAICS 2002 is available at bls. govcescesnaics02.htm . The U. S. Census Bureau reviews and updates NAICS codes every 5 years. Once these updates are available to BLS, CES converts all estimates to these revised NAICS codes. The most current version is NAICS 2012. More information about NAICS 2002, NAICS 2007, and NAICS 2012 is described and linked below. NAICS 2007 to NAICS 2012 Conversion With the release of January 2012 data on February 3, 2012, CES updated the National nonfarm payroll series to the NAICS 2012 from the NAICS 2007 basis. The conversion to NAICS 2012 resulted in minor content changes within the manufacturing and the retail trade sectors, as well as minor coding changes within the utilities and the leisure and hospitality sectors. Several industry titles and descriptions also were updated. All employee (AE) series are published at a more detailed level than all employee hours and earnings, production employee, women employee, or production employee hours and earnings series, collectively called non-AE series. The non-AE series were sometime unaffected or affected at a less-detailed level than the AE series. Further information about the NAICS 2012 conversion for both the AE and non-AE series is available at bls. govcescesnaics12.htm . The full concordance between NAICS 2007 and NAICS 2012 codes is available through the U. S. Census Bureau at census. goveoswwwnaicsconcordances2012to2007NAICS. xls . NAICS 2002 to NAICS 2007 Conversion With the release of January 2008 data on February 1, 2008, the CES national nonfarm payroll series updated to the NAICS 2007 from the NAICS 2002 basis. The conversion to NAICS 2007 resulted in minor definitional changes within manufacturing, telecommunications, financial activities, and professional and technical services. Several industry titles and descriptions also were updated. Further information about the NAICS 2007 conversion is available at bls. govcescesnaics07.htm . The full concordance between NAICS 2002 and NAICS 2007 codes is available through the U. S. Census Bureau at census. goveoswwwnaicsconcordances2007to2002NAICS. xls . SIC 1987 to NAICS 2002 Conversion With the release of May 2003 data on June 6, 2003, the CES national nonfarm payroll series underwent a number of changes. The basis for industry classification changed from the SIC 1987 to the NAICS 2002. NAICS replaced the SIC system. The CES survey published national data on a NAICS 2002 basis with the release of May 2003 data on June 6, 2003. SIC-based data is no longer produced or published it is still be available but not updated past April 2003. Further information about the NAICS 2002 conversion is available at bls. govcescesnaics02.htm . The full concordance between SIC and NAICS 2002 codes is available through the U. S. Census Bureau at census. goveoswwwnaicsconcordances2002NAICSto1987SIC. xls . Data Retrieval CES data are published monthly, but are also available as historical time series. The data are available as part of a monthly news release, as a searchable database, and in text format. The table below lists the ways to download CES data from bls. govceshome. htm. More information about retrieving CES data is available at bls. govwebempsitcestips. htm. Archived editions of Employment and Earnings Online are available from April 2007 forward here: bls. govopubeearchive. htm. Earlier back issues are kept at federal depository libraries. To join the BLS e-mail subscription service that provides excerpts from and links to The Employment Situation, Real Earnings, and other BLS news releases of interest, visit the BLS News Service Subscription E-mail page, available at subscriptions. bls. govaccountsUSDOLBLSsubscribernew. CES Data Retrieval Options BLS requires that all published Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates meet strict quality and privacy guidelines. These guidelines are designed to ensure that there is adequate sample to produce statistically sound estimates and protect the confidentiality of our survey respondents. CES estimates are subject to annual review to determine if they meet BLS publication and disclosure standards. Failure to meet the standards may stem from inadequate sample size, inadequate sample response rates, or dominance of the sample by a few reporters. A list of the most recent changes to published CES series is available at bls. govwebempsitcesnewseries. htm. and a complete list of currently published CES series is available at bls. govwebempsitcesseriespub. htm. The mission of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is to collect, process, analyze, and disseminate essential statistical data to the American public, the U. S. Congress, other federal agencies, state and local governments, business, and labor. In order to maintain credibility and trust with our survey respondents, confidentiality protections for our data are essential. Protecting the confidentiality of data is central to accomplishing the BLS mission. When collecting data, the BLS makes a pledge of confidentiality to its respondents. This pledge varies depending on the context of each survey, but the standard BLS confidentiality pledge promises that data collected are used for statistical purposes only. Information about the BLS confidentiality policy and the laws that protect reporters to BLS surveys can be found here: bls. govblsconfidentiality. htm. Researchers can get access to BLS microdata under certain circumstances. Information about qualifying for the program and the application process through which access may be granted can be found here: bls. govblsblsresda. htm. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey collects earnings data for private nonfarm business establishments, excluding government. To calculate the real earnings series, these nominal dollar earnings estimates for all employees (AE) back to 2006 and for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) starting as early as 1964 (depending on the industry) are adjusted for inflation using 1982-1984 dollars. The data are available on our website at bls. govcesdata. htm. Click on quotCES Data Access Tipsquot for further instructions. CES does not collect or publish government hours or earnings data. Government earnings data are available from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. QCEW provides annual, quarterly, and weekly wage data for various private and government industries based on Unemployment Insurance tax reports. QCEW wage information can be found at bls. govcewhome. htm. CPI price index information can be found at bls. govcpihome. htm. The BLS does not publish average payroll frequency of establishments. However, the CES survey does adjust for different payroll frequencies which can affect seasonally adjusted hours and earnings estimates. More information about CES seasonal adjustment methodology can be found at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5. Survey Methods The Sample The Current Employment Statistics (CES) sample is a stratified, simple random sample of worksites, clustered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) account number. The UI account number is a major identifier on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Longitudinal Database (LDB) of employer records, which serves as both the sampling frame and the benchmark source for the CES employment estimates. The sample strata, or subpopulations, are defined by state, industry, and employment size, yielding a state-based design. The sampling rates for each stratum are determined through a method known as optimum allocation, which distributes a fixed number of sample units across a set of strata to minimize the overall variance, or sampling error, on the primary estimate of interest. The total nonfarm employment level is the primary estimate of interest, and the CES sample design gives top priority to measuring it as precisely as possible, or minimizing the statistical error around the national total nonfarm employment estimates. Information about the current CES sample can be found in the CES Technical Notes available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1. The establishment survey, like other sample surveys, is subject to two types of error, sampling and nonsampling error. The magnitude of sampling error, or variance, is directly related to the size of the sample and the percentage of universe coverage achieved by the sample. The establishment survey sample covers over one-third of total universe employment this yields a very small variance on the total nonfarm estimates. More information about error in the CES survey and measurements of the error associated with sample estimates are available in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1c. Yes, about 42 percent of the establishment survey sample is composed of business establishments with fewer than 20 employees. The establishment survey sample is designed to maximize the reliability of the total nonfarm employment estimates for each State firms from all size classes and industries are appropriately sampled to achieve this goal. Sample data are weighted to represent other establishments in the same state, industry, and size class. More information about the sampling methods used for the CES survey is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1a . The CES government sample is not part of the probability-based survey design. CES is able to achieve a very high percent of universe employment coverage (74 percent) by obtaining full payroll employment counts for many government agencies, thus a probability-based sample design is not necessary for government. The high coverage rate virtually assures a high degree of reliability for the government employment estimates. The large government sample does not bias the total nonfarm employment estimates because it is used to estimate only the government portion of total nonfarm employment. The probability sample is used to estimate employment for all industries in the private sector. Total private and government estimates are summed to derive total nonfarm employment estimates. More information about coverage levels of both private and government employment in the CES sample is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection1b . Data Collection Each month, BLS collects data on employment, payroll, and paid hours from a sample of establishments. To encourage participation in this voluntary survey, BLS uses a variety of collection techniques, tailored to individual firm preferences. Data collection centers perform initial enrollment of each firm via telephone, collect the data for several months via Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), and where possible transfer respondents to a self-reporting mode such as touch-tone data entry, fax, or web collection. Very large, multi-establishment firms ongoing reporting is established via Electronic Data Interchange (EDI). Firms using EDI provide electronic files to BLS that include data from all their worksites. More information about CES data collection is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection2 . CES tracks collection rates for the CES sample on a monthly basis for each release of estimates. Collection rates are the percent of reports received for a monthly estimate compared to the total number of actively-reporting sample units on the sample registry. More information about registry receipts is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6 . More information about CES data collection rates is available at bls. govwebempsitcesregrec. htm . Estimation Methods The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program uses a matched sample concept and weighted link relative estimator to produce employment, hours, and earnings estimates. A matched sample is defined to be all sample members that have reported data for the reference month and the month prior. Excluded from the matched sample is any sample unit that reports that it has zero employees in the current or previous month. More information about CES monthly estimation is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5a . Links to the equations for the calculation of CES monthly estimation of employment, hours, and earnings are listed in the table below. CES Equations for the Estimation of Employment, Hours, and Earnings Employment Concepts CES employment is an estimate of the number of nonfarm, payroll jobs in the U. S. economy. Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full - or part-time who received pay (whether they worked or not) for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any employees who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking employee who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment. Data exclude proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farm workers, and household workers. Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period, or who have a pending job but have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. Government employment covers only civilian employees it excludes uniformed members of the armed services. For more information about CES employment, see the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection4a . The definition of employment in the Current Population Survey (the household survey) is available at bls. govcpsfaq. htmQues4 . CES draws the survey sample from roughly 9.7 million U. S. business establishments covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system representing 97 percent of all employment within the scope of CES in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U. S. Virgin Islands. Excluded from the CES scope, although they are included in the list of establishments covered by UI taxes, are private households and agricultural businesses. The remaining 3 percent of establishments included in the CES scope that are not covered by UI laws are students paid by their school as part of a work study program, interns of hospitals paid by the hospital for which they work, employees paid by state and local government and elected officials, independent or contract insurance agents, employees of non-profits and religious organizations (this is the largest group of employees not covered), and railroad employees covered under a different system of UI administered by the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB). More information about noncovered employment and the methodology used to include this employment in the CES estimates can be found in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmNCE . The CES data also exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family employees, farm employees, and domestic employees. Government employment covers only civilian employees military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded. The production and nonsupervisory employee groups vary by industry. In service-providing industries, these data are collected for nonsupervisory employees mdash those who are not owners or who are not primarily employed to direct, supervise, or plan the work of others. In goods-producing industries, the data are collected for production employees in mining and logging and in manufacturing, and for construction employees in construction. Production and construction employees include working supervisors or group leaders who may be in charge of some employees, but whose supervisory functions are only incidental to their regular work. The production employeeconstruction employee categories in goods-producing industries exclude employees not directly involved in production, such as managers, sales, or accounting personnel. More information about which employees are included or not included in the definitions of all employees and production and nonsupervisory employees is available on the CES report forms at bls. govcesidcfcesforms. htm. or in the CES Technical Notes, available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection4a . Yes, the CES survey captures counts of all employees on the payroll, including part-time employees. However, part-time employees are not counted separately from full-time employees, so CES data does not include separate estimates of part - and full-time employment. The Current Population Survey (CPS) does have a separate estimate of part-time employees. More information about CPS collection of full - and part-time employment is available at bls. govcpslfcharacteristics. htmfullpart . It is likely that the CES survey includes at least some undocumented immigrants. However, the establishment survey is not designed to identify the legal status of workers. Therefore, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in the survey. The Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, does include questions which identify the foreign and native born employees, but it does not include questions about the legal status of the foreign born employees. More information about foreign born employees in the CPS survey is available at bls. govcpsdemographics. htmforeignborn . BLS is unable to quantify the impact of reservists being called to active duty in CES employment figures. In concept, persons on active military duty for the entire survey reference period are not included on employer payrolls. Some reservists hold jobs not covered by the payroll survey mdash such as the self-employed or those in agriculture mdash and others may not hold jobs at all. Any reservist who worked for or received pay from their regular employer during the survey reference period is counted on the employers payroll. If reservists are replaced by new employees on an employers payroll during the pay period including the 12th of the month, there is no net change in the number of jobs counted. If reservists are not replaced, a net decline in the employers job count results. If a reservist and a replacement employee for the reservist each worked at any time during the same reference pay period, they are counted as two employees. Government employment includes only civilian employees. Military personnel on active duty are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded. Establishments report the number of persons on payroll during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. A person working multiple jobs at different establishments is counted once at each establishment. A person working different jobs at the same business establishment is counted once. Unusually severe weather, natural disasters, government shutdowns, and other catastrophic events are more likely to have an impact on CES estimates of average weekly hours than on employment. In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. Any event in which employees are prevented from working a normal schedule typically results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours. In order for catastrophic events to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be out of work without pay for the entire pay period. About two-thirds of all employees in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures. Because the hours that employees work can be impacted by these special circumstances, but those employees might still be counted as employed by an establishment if they were paid for work done during a portion of the pay period, it is not possible to quantify the effect of catastrophic events on estimates of employment from the establishment survey. In addition to their direct impact, these events sometimes have secondary effects. When the magnitude of significant secondary effects are known these secondary effects are discussed in the monthly Employment Situation news release and other BLS publications. BLS independently develops a national employment series state estimates are not forced to sum to national totals. Because each state series is subject to larger sampling and nonsampling errors than the national series, summing them cumulates individual state level errors and can cause distortions at an aggregate level. Due to these statistical limitations, BLS does not compile a quotsum-of-statesquot employment series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a volatile error structure. More information about the differences in state and national CES estimates is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection4e . Hours and Earnings Concepts The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces earnings, but not wage data. CES average earnings are a measure of gross payrolls divided by total hours paid during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Averages of hourly earnings differ from wage rates. Earnings are the return to an employee for a stated period on average in an industry rates are the amount stipulated for a given unit of work or time in a specific job. Average hourly earnings do not represent employers total compensation costs because they exclude items such as employee benefits, irregular bonuses and commissions, retroactive payments, and the employers share of payroll taxes. A more comprehensive explanation is available at bls. govopubhomhomch2.htm. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program produces wages by industry, available at bls. govcewhome. htm. The Occupational Employment Survey produces wages by occupation (instead of industry), available at bls. govoeshome. htm. Yes, employers report total gross pay earned during the entire pay period, including overtime pay but excluding irregular payments, and the total number of hours for which employees received pay during the entire pay period including overtime. Overtime hours are published for manufacturing industries only. Respondents in manufacturing report the total number of hours for which employees received overtime premiums because they worked more than their regularly scheduled hours. BLS recommends that CES earnings series not be used in contract escalation clauses. Instead, BLS recommends that you use the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures changes in labor costs free from the influence of employment shifts among industries and occupations. For help on how to use the ECI for contract adjustments, visit bls. govncsectescalator. htm. BirthDeath The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total employment level because each month new firms generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between a firm opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from Unemployment Insurance (UI) quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U. S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7-9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the firm, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, CES cannot sample and begin to collect data from new firms until they are at least a year old. There is a parallel though somewhat different issue in capturing employment loss from business deaths through monthly sample collection. Businesses that have closed are unlikely to respond to the survey, and data collectors may not be able to ascertain until after the monthly collection period that firms have in fact gone out of business. As with business births, hard information about business deaths eventually becomes available from the lagged UI tax records. Difficulty in capturing information from business birth and death units is not unique to the CES virtually all current business surveys face these limitations. Unlike many surveys, CES adjusts for these limitations explicitly, using a statistical modeling technique. Because the goal of the CES program is to estimate an employment total each month and business births and deaths are important components contributing to these totals, CES uses a model-based adjustment in conjunction with the sample. Without the net birthdeath model-based adjustment, the CES nonfarm payroll employment estimates would be considerably less accurate. More information about the CES net birthdeath model is available in the CES BirthDeath Frequently Asked Questions bls. govwebempsitcesbdqa. htm or in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5c. Current net birthdeath contributions to the CES employment estimates are available at bls. govwebempsitcesbd. htm. Seasonal Adjustment Most series published by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program show a regularly recurring seasonal movement that can be measured from past experience. By eliminating that part of the change attributable to the normal seasonal variation, it is possible to observe the cyclical and other nonseasonal movements in these series. Seasonal adjustment is the process by which these normal seasonal patterns are removed from the estimates leaving behind only non-seasonal trends and irregular movements. Seasonally adjusted estimates of employment and other series are generated using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program developed by the United States Census Bureau. This program adjusts estimates for fluctuations that occur on a regular basis within a year. For example, employment in retail trade rises prior to the Christmas holiday season and then falls following the holiday. This holiday change in retail trade is seasonal and is removed by seasonally adjusting the series. Seasonally adjusted series are published monthly for selected employment, hours, and earnings estimates. More information about seasonal adjustment in the CES program is available at bls. govwebempsitcesseasadj. htm. BLS published employment on a seasonally adjusted basis beginning in April 1955. Before this period, the Federal Reserve seasonally adjusted CES employment those series are available on the St. Louis FED website at research. stlouisfed. orgfred2categories11. Hours and earnings were first seasonally adjusted by CES in July 1960. The 45 week adjustment used in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) programs seasonal adjustment procedures adjusts for inconsistencies in the CES series that arise because of variations of 4 or 5 weeks between reference periods in any given pair of months. In highly seasonal months and industries, this variation can be an important determinant of the magnitude of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at the time the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal adjustment. The CES program first incorporated a 45 week adjustment with the release of May 1996 data. At that time, historical estimates were revised for the 45 week differences back to January 1986. Furthermore, historical data was again re-seasonally adjusted using the 45 week adjustment back to January 1986 when CES switched from SIC-based industry definitions to NAICS-based industry definitions in 2003. A research paper discussing these 4 to 5 week inconsistencies in the CES estimates called Adjusting for a Calendar Effect in Employment Time Series (1996) is available at bls. govorepdfst960190.pdf. More information about the CES seasonal adjustment process and special model adjustments such as the 4 to 5 week calendar effect are available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5e. Other CES Estimation Concepts The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is used for national and state estimation of a small number of series with sampling limitations. The CES SDM is a weighted least squares model with two employment inputs: an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) projection based on trend from ten years of historical QCEW data. These two over-the-month change estimates are then weighted based on the variance of each of the estimates. More information about the CES SDM including which series are estimated using the SDM is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection5e. More information about the QCEW program is available at bls. govcewhome. htm . The shipyard index tracks the relative change in the dollar amount of average hourly earnings over a given period of time for certain shipyards contracted to do work for the Navy. In calculating the index, each yards current straight-time hourly earnings are weighted according to its share of aggregate hours for all yards over the past 12 months. Then, this current weighted earnings measure is compared with the equivalent weighted earnings measure for a given base period (May 1987 for the index that includes lump sum payments and September 1980 for the one that does not). The index is scaled so that the base value equals 100. The values for the other months are expressed as a percentage of the base value. For the purposes of the CES shipyard index, a lump-sum payment is defined as a payment made to all production workers in lieu of all or part of a wage increase no other lump-sum bonuses are included. When a payment is reported, it is prorated forward based on the number of weeks in each month of the lump-sum period. The ship building indices are available at bls. govcescesship. htm. Monthly Revisions CES revises published estimates to improve its data series by incorporating additional information that was not available at the time of the initial publication of the estimates. CES revises its initial monthly estimates twice, in the immediately succeeding 2 months, to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey. More information about the monthly revisions is available at bls. govcescesrevinfo. htm. On an annual basis, CES incorporates a benchmark revision that reanchors estimates to nearly complete employment counts available from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, County Business Pattern data, and other state-collected data. The benchmark helps to control for sampling error in the estimates. More information about the annual benchmark revision is available at bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm. All versions of the estimates through the month preceding the most recent benchmark are available at bls. govwebempsitcesvininfo. htm . It can be nearly 2 years before not seasonally adjusted Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates are considered final. CES first preliminary estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are published each month approximately 3 weeks after the reference period. Estimates are then revised twice before being held constant until the annual benchmark release. Second preliminary estimates for a given month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release. The annual benchmark revisions affect nearly 2 years of data, so most months are subject to revisions during 2 separate benchmark periods. Seasonally adjusted CES estimates are generally subject to revisions for 5 years after their initial publication. Current Employment Statistics (CES) first preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are published each month approximately 3 weeks after the reference period. Estimates are then revised twice before being held constant until the annual benchmark release. Second preliminary estimates for a given month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release. Once a year with the benchmark release, 5 years of seasonally adjusted CES estimates are re-seasonally adjusted. For most series, CES uses 10 years of not seasonally adjusted data as an input to seasonal adjustment. However, the all employee hours and earnings series begins in 2006. Until CES has a full 10 years of input data for the AE hours and earnings series, CES will use the entire history of the not seasonally adjusted series as inputs and replace the entire history of the seasonally adjusted data. Continuing these updates until all years have been adjusted using a full 10 years of input data ensures that all data are adjusted using the same methodology. Further revisions may occur after the final estimates have been produced due to changes in scope, NAICS revisions, data errors, or other circumstances that require the reconstruction of historical CES estimates. More information about the monthly revisions is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6a. More information about the benchmark revisions is available at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b . Benchmarking The benchmark adjustment, a standard part of the CES survey estimation process, is a once-a-year re-anchoring of the sample-based employment estimates to full population counts available principally through Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records filed by employers with State labor market information agencies. The difference between the March population counts and the March sample-based employment estimates is referred to as the benchmark revision. A preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is published in late September, and the final benchmark revision, affecting 21 months of previously published data and anchored to March of the previous year, is published with the January preliminary estimates in early February. More information about the CES benchmarking process is available at bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program maintains a quarterly tabulation from administrative records of the number of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) laws, including Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE). UI universe counts, available on a lagged basis, contain individual employer records for approximately 9.7 million establishments and cover nearly 97 percent of total nonfarm employment these records provide most of the benchmark levels for the sample-based estimates. For the small segment of the population not covered by UI, BLS develops employment benchmarks from several alternative sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and County Business Patterns. More information about CES benchmark revisions are available in the Benchmark Article at bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm or in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b. How do the benchmark revisions affect months prior to the benchmark month in the CES surveyFollowing standard BLS methodology for national estimates, the March UI-based benchmark employment level replaces the March sample-based employment estimate, and the estimates for the 11 months prior to the benchmark month are adjusted using a wedge procedure. In this process, the difference, or error, between the benchmark level and the previously published March estimate for each estimating cell is computed. This difference is linearly distributed across the 11 months of estimates subsequent to the previous benchmark. For example, the benchmark revision that was released in February 2017 replaced the March 2016 estimate with the benchmark level, decreasing the employment level for that month by 81,000. To wedge this adjustment over the prior year, 112 of the difference was added to April 2015, 212s to May and so forth, through February 2016 which received 1112s of the difference. Employment for March 2015 had been set to a benchmark amount in the prior year and was not revised with the March 2016 benchmark. The wedge procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. Employment benchmarks are applied to not seasonally adjusted estimates. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5 years of historical data may revise, because new models for seasonal adjustment are selected and seasonal factors based on the new models are updated with each years benchmark release. CES benchmark revisions only affect April of the previous year to October of the benchmark year and do not affect changes to earlier employment levels. However, earlier months of employment history are subject to change due to reconstructions to CES series. Reconstructions can result in revisions to both the not seasonally adjusted data and the seasonally adjusted data at both the detailed and aggregate levels. For information about benchmarks and potential revisions with this years benchmark, see bls. govwebempsitcesbmart. htm. More information about benchmarking is available in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b. How do the benchmark revisions affect months after the benchmark month in the CES surveyEstimates for the period after the benchmark is applied, called the post-benchmark period, are calculated for each month by applying previously derived over-the-month sample change ratios to the revised March levels. New net birthdeath model estimates also are calculated and included in post-benchmark estimation. Additionally, new sample from the annual sample update is introduced starting with the third release of estimates for November following the benchmark month. Employment benchmarks, including the post-benchmark period, are applied to not seasonally adjusted estimates. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 5 years of historical data may revise, because new models for seasonal adjustment are selected and seasonal factors based on the new models are updated with each years benchmark release. More information about benchmarking is available in the CES Technical Notes at bls. govwebempsitcestn. htmsection6b. Respondents To begin reporting your CES data or if you have any questions while reporting, please contact the CES Help Desk or call 1-800-827-2005. Include your CES report number(s) in your request or have them available when you call. More information for CES respondents is available at bls. govrespondentsceshome. htm . Each month the CES program surveys about 147,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 634,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of employees on nonfarm payrolls. Input to this survey is greatly appreciated. In most states the CES survey is voluntary. However, it is required by state law in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Oregon. Information about these requirements, including documentation of the applicable legal code, is available on the first page of the report forms. Electronic copies of the report forms for each industry are available at bls. govcesidcfcesforms. htm. More information for CES respondents is available at bls. govrespondentsceshome. htm . Last Modified Date: February 3, 2017 Recommend this page using: Facebook Twitter LinkedIn
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